Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,468$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(140 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,089.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,089.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(0.336 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,375$ on 2020-05-25

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,503$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(639 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,398.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 56.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11,398.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $609$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(121 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{540.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 26.9)}}\) (asimptote \(540.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,147$ on 2020-05-25

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,297$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(51.4 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,861.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 124.5)}}\) (asimptote \(58,861.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $67$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.01 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 75.2)}}\) (asimptote \(167.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,893$ on 2020-05-25

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,043$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(16.9 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,319.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 71.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,319.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(0.938 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(22.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $866$ on 2020-05-25

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $23,615$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(422 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $481$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(19.1 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,217$ on 2020-05-25

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $334$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(154 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333.6}{1 + 10^{-0.103 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(333.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.08 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.8}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 11.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2$ on 2020-05-25

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,967$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(501 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,676.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 80.7)}}\) (asimptote \(45,676.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $783$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(76.1 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{901.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(901.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,284$ on 2020-05-25

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,135$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(12.6 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,454.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 63.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,454.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(0.475 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 51.0)}}\) (asimptote \(15.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,559$ on 2020-05-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Tunisia recovered 89%
Niger recovered 80%
Morocco recovered 23%

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,051$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(312 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,031.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 24.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,031.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $48$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(16.8 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44.9}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 17.4)}}\) (asimptote \(44.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $84$ on 2020-05-25

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $951$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(335 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{863.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 14.0)}}\) (asimptote \(863.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $62$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(9.53 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(74.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-05-25

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,532$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(806 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,964.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(7,964.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $200$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(61.4 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{190.0}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 20.0)}}\) (asimptote \(190.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,558$ on 2020-05-25